Sunday, September 20, 2009

Tenets of the Brain

Tenets of the Brain

#1. Change can occur only when the brain is in the mood

#2. Change strengthens connection between neurons engaged at the same time

#3. Neurons that fire together, wire together

#4. Initial changes are just temporary

#5. Brain plasticity is a two-way street and we can either drive brain change negatively or positively

#6. Memory is crucial for learning

#7. Motivation is a key factor in brain plasticity

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Financial advice makes the brain 'follow blindly'

Financial advice makes the brain 'follow blindly'

Expert financial opinion can make a person's brain disengage from any decision-making and blindly agree with the advice being given, a new study suggests.

 

Brain Rules


Websites of Interest

Brain Rules: 12 Principles for Surviving and Thriving at Work, School and Home

Brain Waves


Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Career - MBA's change of heart

Career Journal: M.B.A.s Veer Off Path to Big Finance Jobs
By Dana Mattioli
1312 words
18 November 2008
The Wall Street Journal
D4
English
(Copyright (c) 2008, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

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As recruiting season begins on business-school campuses, the collapse of major banks on Wall Street has many soon-to-graduate M.B.A.s rethinking their post-graduate paths. That's especially true for students who had set their sights on a career in investment banking.
A large percentage of business-school grads head to financial careers. At schools like New York University's Stern School of Business and University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, nearly 50% of graduates head for finance careers, with a good number of them expecting to end up at large investment banks or financial-services firms. Now, students who may have otherwise settled for nothing less than big-name investment banks are seeking smaller, boutique and middle-market investment firms that may offer more job stability. And some students, unwilling to ride out the storm, are giving up or delaying their investment-banking dreams to pursue different careers entirely.
Immediately following the Lehman Brothers collapse and news that Merrill Lynch would be acquired, students at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management began re-evaluating their plans, says Roxanne Hori, assistant dean and director of the career management center at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. She says several major investment banks that have recruited on campus during the normal October and November recruiting season in previous years have dropped out completely this year, including Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group. Others, like Citigroup, which recently revealed plans to cut its work force by more than 20,000, have scaled back.
For those whose career paths have been turned upside down, directors of career services at M.B.A. programs say that consulting, private equity and corporate finance positions within traditional manufacturing or technology companies are popular alternative avenues for students who previously planned on pursuing investment banking. "Consulting has been popular on campus this year from the company side and student side," says Pamela Mittman, assistant dean of career services and student activities at NYU's Stern School.
Maryellen Lamb, senior associate director of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, says more finance-oriented M.B.A. students are focusing on function rather than industry. "I've seen a number of students saying to me 'I really want to work in finance but I don't know if I have the stomach for banking, what else can I do?'"
Linkun Li, a second-year M.B.A. student at the University of Connecticut School of Business, recently changed his focus to corporate finance and risk management from investment banking. The 30-year-old said recent market events made him change his career path. "The traditional investment-banking industry was basically wiped out with bankruptcies and mergers, and that posed concerns for me," he says. He plans to pursue these alternate paths for a few years and then try to return to investment banking once the market stabilizes.
Students who are willing to switch focus are a boon to recruiters like Brian Thomson, senior manager of university recruiting for Philips Electronics North America, who have had to compete with investment banks for candidates in previous years. He has seen a dramatic increase in interest from M.B.A. students for jobs in their finance department this year, and in some cases Philips has been the most popular company at M.B.A. information sessions.
In years past Mr. Thomson says it was sometimes a struggle to fill the eight to 10 interview slots he had set for campus visits. But on a recent trip to Kellogg he says his biggest challenge was determining which of the 60 applicants to interview. "There's a big increase in the caliber of the finance students we're seeing this year," he says, adding that the company plans on hiring more M.B.A. students than in previous years. "One door closed . . . [and] now we have all of these students who are essentially free agents."
Consumer-products company Unilever U.S. has also experienced a higher number of applicants at the M.B.A.-level who say they're interested in working in the company's finance department. "We're interviewing people and hearing that they've interned with investment banks and either didn't get an offer, or received an offer and are reluctant to go that path," says Christine Eggensperger, university relations manager for Unilever. She says the increase means a wider range of talent to choose from.
The surge in interest has the attention of Julie Coffman, head of recruiting in North America for Bain & Co., a consulting firm, for different reasons. She says applications at the M.B.A. level have increased 10% to 15%. But, she says, that increase is pushing the company to do a better job vetting in order to determine the motives of applicants.
When talking to the newly interested, she makes sure they're "interested in Bain because of what we offer, not just because other avenues have closed," she says. "We don't want folks to wait out the storm for 12 to 18 months on our watch."
For those still bent on banking, turning to middle-market and small firms will give them "the option to engage in the same sort of activity for a few years, even if these firms don't carry the cachet of some of the Wall Street firms," says Richard Coughlan, senior associate dean and director of the University of Richmond's Robins School of Business. The deals they work on will be smaller or more regional, "but the actual experience [they] gain has similarities to what [they] gain at a bigger bank," he says.
Grant Garcia, a student at the school, says last December he went through recruiting for a summer position on Wall Street, at firms that no longer exist or have merged. Alumni at big New York banks have advised him to ride out the bear market by getting as much regional experience as possible, and to look back to New York in a few years. He's taking their advice and concentrating on smaller banks to find work.
Mr. Garcia and others pursuing this path will find that boutique firms and smaller banks hire only a handful of M.B.A.s each year, compared with the hundreds a big investment bank typically hires. And the influx of interested M.B.A.s is allowing the smaller concerns to be choosier.
Still, smaller investment banks say they are benefiting from a larger talent pool to choose from for positions to open next summer and fall. Peter Kies, head of the investment bank recruiting committee at Robert W. Baird & Co., a middle-market investment bank in Milwaukee, says there has been a 50% increase in interest at the M.B.A. level over last year. Mr. Kies also says that the bank is appealing to students on a national level rather than just at business schools from the Midwest and East Coast.
"We're sort of like kids in a candy store right now in terms of tracking high-quality folks," he says.
Harris Williams & Co., a middle-market M&A investment bank in Richmond, Va., and with locations in Boston, Philadelphia and San Francisco, has seen a 30% to 35% increase in applications from M.B.A. students since last year.
Stevie McFadden, recruiting director or Harris Williams & Co., says this year's class is a much more discerning group with a long-term view. "We're receiving a lot of questions about stability and what we predict our performance will be this year and next year," she says. But "we're in a position to be more selective."

Friday, September 19, 2008

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Abraham Maslow - 1940
The Hierarchy of Needs

1. Physiological: Food, water, shelter, sleep
2. Safety: Security, freedom from fear
3. Belonging and Love: Friends, family, spouse, affection, relationships
4. Self-Esteem: Achievement, mastery, recognition, respect
5. Self-Actualization: Pursuit of inner talents, creativity, fulfillment

People are motivated by unsatisfied needs. The lower-level needs must be met before a person is motivated to satisfy a higher need. 

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Jason Zweig - The Intelligent Investor - Why the Obvious Isn't Inevitable


The Intelligent Investor: Why the Obvious Isn't Inevitable
By Jason Zweig
1,194 words
16 September 2008
The Wall Street Journal

If you learn nothing else from the last few harrowing days, you should learn the difference between what is obvious and what is inevitable.
In the heat of the moment, the two perceptions seem identical. It was obvious that investors would panic as they absorbed the news about Bloody Sunday on Wall Street, so it was inevitable that the market would take a slashing. It was obvious that Lehman Brothers had to go bust, so a bankruptcy filing was inevitable. It was obvious that Merrill Lynch could no longer make it on its own, so it was inevitable that a bigger institution like Bank of America would take it over.
But investors -- at least individual investors -- don't actually panic in times like these. Instead, they freeze. In July (the latest month for which final numbers are available), mutual-fund investors pulled out just $2.62 of every $100 they had invested in stock funds. That was less than they took out of bond funds, even though the stock market had just gone through a nauseating summer swoon.
According to researchers at Strategic Insight, who have studied decades' worth of data on how fund investors behave, this inertia is typical. Tim Buckley, who oversees retail investor operations at Vanguard Group, says the giant fund company had only 10% to 15% more phone calls and online inquiries yesterday than on a typical Monday in September. "However much panic there might have been on Wall Street," said Mr. Buckley, "there [was] no panic on Main Street."
Scott Jaffa, a 25-year-old systems administrator in Silver Spring, Md., called yesterday's plunge "as much a test of my psychology as anything else." Because he does not need the money "for another 30 to 40 years,"he asked rhetorically, "why should I worry myself about its performance over a period of days or weeks or even months?"
Mr. Jaffa is already developing what the ancient Stoics and the great Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard called ataraxia, or imperturbability. But he knows that ataraxia does not come naturally; it takes work. A year and a half ago, Mr. Jaffa destroyed the online access code for his 401(k) so he could no longer have instant access to his retirement accounts. His goal was to make it "significantly harder" and to require "human interaction" before he could trade on his own emotions. That enabled him to watch Monday's decline without acting on it.
Here, then, is one way the obvious is not inevitable. It may be "obvious" to professional money managers that small investors are the problem in turbulent markets. But it's not individual investors who cause (or even widely participate in) a selling frenzy. It is, instead, the "smart money" that tends to panic. But the differences between obvious and inevitable run much deeper than this, all the way down into the biological bedrock of our minds. The investing brain is bad at some things and good at many others, but above all else, it has a remarkable capacity for fooling itself. What seemed so obvious and inevitable Monday had, less than 24 hours earlier, struck nearly all of us as impossible.Before Sunday, not even most people on Wall Street really believed that Lehman would go bust. The stock finished last week with a market value of $2.5 billion, showing that investors as a group simply did not believe that Lehman would go under.
But by Monday morning, everyone's beliefs had already been retroactively revised; suddenly, Lehman's bankruptcy had been "inevitable." Psychologists call this hindsight bias -- the uncanny feeling that "I knew it all along."
History is full of such instances. The O.J. Simpson verdict, for example, convinced people that they had predicted he would be found innocent (regardless of what they actually said before the jury made its decision). Once Lehman went bust, none of us could remember how surprised we were when we first heard that it might. As Princeton University psychologist Daniel Kahneman says, "Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish." And therein lies its extreme danger for investors. By retroactively fooling us into thinking that we knew how the past would unfold, hindsight bias tricks us into thinking we know how the future will unfold. But if the past took you by surprise, why should you believe you can decipher the future? 
The question answers itself. It also points the way toward a sane course of action even as the markets seem to have gone mad.
-- Be a contrarian. The late Sir John Templeton preached that investors should buy at the "point of maximum pessimism," when market sentiment stinks and no one wants to hold anything but cash. Adds Daniel Fuss, vice chairman at money manager Loomis Sayles & Co. in Boston: "It's not a point, it's a period." No one can find the point or moment at which pessimism hits its exact zenith. But it's not hard to identify a period in which pessimism is extreme -- like right now. When I spoke to him yesterday, Mr. Fuss called this market "the best opportunity to buy corporate bonds at phenomenal prices since September 1974." Risk takers might take a look at real-estate-related stocks; extreme risk takers might even consider a small allocation to financial stocks. 
-- Take an inventory. "Instead of just saying, 'Everything's going down, everything's going down'," says Gary Schatsky, a financial planner in New York City, "write down on a piece of paper everything you own and everything you owe." Then go through each of your assets and liabilities to see how you might improve your position. In a period when stocks and bonds and mutual funds are not delivering positive short-term returns, you can probably add the most to your net worth by turning your attention to paying down or consolidating your high-cost debt.
-- Take baby steps. If you truly cannot sleep at night, sell off some stocks, or move some of your money to bonds or cash. But do so a little bit at a time, and talk to your tax adviser first in order to maximize the considerable tax benefits you may be able to get out these incremental moves. By the time you get any money moving, the panic may already have passed.
-- Question authority. If the financial world really were coming to an end, nobody would know it -- least of all the pundits who are currently crying doom. In 1929, experts ranging from the legendary trader Jesse Livermore to John D. Rockefeller and Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon all declared that falling stock prices were nothing to worry about. They were wrong. The lesson is not that it's a mistake to be an optimist in falling markets, but rather that it's a mistake to trust the consensus view of the experts. With the mood on Wall Street now as dark as a mushroom farm, optimists are much more likely than pessimists to be proven right in the end.
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Saturday, September 13, 2008

The Ostrich Effect

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR: Should You Fear the Ostrich Effect?
By Jason Zweig
718 words
13 September 2008
The Wall Street Journal
B1
English

In a stock market that never seems to run out of reasons to go down, you no longer feel like a bull. But that does not necessarily make you a bear. You may, in fact, have become an ostrich.
Chances are, you didn't leap for the letter opener the last time your investment-account statement came in the mail. Nor have you been looking up the value of your portfolio online anywhere near as frequently as you did in the glory days of the summer of 2007. Can you even peg, within a hundred points, where the Dow closed on Friday?

Behavioral economist George Loewenstein of Carnegie Mellon University coined the term "the ostrich effect" to describe the way investors stick their heads in the sand during lousy markets.
"Knowing definitively that something bad has happened is much more painful than suspecting that something bad may have happened," he explains. "If you don't know for sure how your portfolio did, you can always retain the hope that it somehow did better."
In standard economic theory, investors care about their total wealth, not how much they gain or lose from moment to moment. But investors are people, not adding machines. They still want to capture plasure and avoid pain.
Turning yourself into an ostrich doesn't make your losses go away, but it does enable you to pretend they aren't there.
New research by Prof. Loewenstein and his colleague Duane Seppi found that investors in Scandinavia looked up the value of their holdings 50% to 80% less often during bad markets. American investors stuff their heads in the sand, too. Vanguard mutual-fund holders checked their account values far less often in this June's grim market than they did in mid-to-late 2007, when stocks were setting new highs.
Acting like a 200-pound bird with a two-ounce brain isn't all bad. Yes, if it's been six months since you last checked the value of your shares in Fannie Mae or Washington Mutual or Lehman Brothers, then you will feel like a birdbrain when you finally get an update. But such black-hole stocks are rare. If you sell on every bit of bad news, you will never get to profit from the far more common good news.
Experiments by psychologist Paul Andreassen have shown that the more news that investors get on their holdings, the more they trade and the lower the returns they earn. When your head is stuck in the sand, you can't open your mouth to trade.
But becoming completely information-averse isn't a good idea, either. Here are some prudent actions you can take when you would rather act like an ostrich.
-- Look ahead. Use your email or calendar software to send yourself a future reminder. Commit yourself to check the value of your accounts, not today, but one week or one month from now. When that day arrives, rebalance your portfolio, selling a portion of those assets that have gone up and buying a bit of those that have gone down. Also check whether you hold any stocks that you would not buy more of at their latest prices; sell them for a loss that you may use to reduce your taxable income.
-- Use the news. You should not, of course, stop reading this estimable newspaper. For an intelligent investor looking for timely buy ideas, the New Highs and Lows table in the Money & Investing section is alone worth the price of the paper; this Thursday, it offered a bumper crop of 656 new lows.

-- Be contrary. When the headlines are overwhelmingly negative, as they are now, the market tends to feel riskier than it actually is. (The time to worry is when no one seems worried, not when everyone does.) Take a few moments to go back in market history and see how stocks did after other periods of despondency like 2002, 1998, 1991, 1987, 1982, 1974 and so on. If history is any guide, your inclination to act like an ostrich is a strong indication that the market is about to turn into a phoenix.